Abstract

North American Shipments Impacted by Economic Woe; Western Europe Became Most Important Shipment Destination

In 2008, the North American notebook PC market took a heavy blow from the subprime mortgage crisis and saw considerable weakening of consumer confidence. As a result, shipment volume of consumer models was seriously compromised. Enterprise model shipments were also affected by the shutdown of businesses or reduction of corporate IT spending. Growth momentum in the North American market therefore paled in comparison with the previous years, and share of shipments for North America in the global notebook PC market also dropped from around 35% in the previous years to 30.2%.

The subprime mortgage crisis and global economic woe hit Western Europe at a slightly later date than North America. Therefore, stable growth momentum was sustained throughout the year in Western Europe. Moreover, due to relatively strong consumer power and high acceptance of new products in the Western European market, shipments for this region were relatively unharmed by the shortage of key components in 2008. Overall, notebook PC shipments for Western Europe accounted for 33.1% of the global shipment volume in 2008, surpassing other regions of the world.

China Expected to See Strong Market Growth in 2009; Emerging Markets to Be Major Deployment Focus

Looking at the global notebook PC market, it is projected that negative factors such as US subprime mortgage crisis and global economic woe will keep plaguing the market development. It is expected that Japan will continue to suffer from climbing unemployment rate, while the Western European market is expected to be plagued by problems with channel distributors, such as shutdown of businesses due to difficulties in capital turnover. On the whole, although shipment performance in different regional markets is expected to see disparate development in 2009, North America and Western Europe are projected to remain the most important shipment destinations owing to their immense geographical expanse and population as well as mature IT infrastructure. Therefore, it is forecasted that the combined shipment volume for North America and Western Europe will still top 60% in full-year 2009.

Also worthy of note is the development of the Chinese market, which features relatively stable GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth momentum, increasing willingness to invest in IT equipment by the government and large enterprises alike, and implementation of various measures to stimulate domestic demand, such as subsidization for home appliance purchase in the rural regions. Notebook PC shipment is expected to benefit from said policy, too. It is projected that the share of notebook PC shipments for China will climb further in 2009.

Regarding the emerging markets such as Brazil and India, many vendors have hesitated towards large-scale deployment in these markets due to high tariffs and complex laws and regulations in different parts of the country. Nevertheless, in light of their large population and consumption potential, some branded vendors have been aggressively engaged in collaboration with ODMs and EMS (Electronics Manufacturing Service) providers on local assembly, manufacturing, and shipping, so as to avoid or cut back on the burden of tariffs and regulations. At the same time, the collaboration enables these branded vendors to establish working relationship or partnership with the local governments and enterprises, which is expected to help boost the penetration and awareness of PCs in the emerging markets. In addition, branded vendors are thus able to improve their relationship with local channel distributors, thereby enhancing their brand awareness and strengthening their first-mover advantage in these emerging markets.

Appendix

Research Scope

This research focuses on notebook PCs with screen sizes of 10.4-inch and larger, which can be divided by form factor into one-spindle, two-spindle, and all-in-one. Notebook PCs in this study are further segmented into full system and barebones assembly levels.

Product Definition

The notebook PC is a kind of personal computer characterized by mobility and book-shaped design, but does not include WebPad and Pocket PC.

Glossary of Terms

List of Companies